Thursday, January 22, 2009

The 30-inning rule

Before last season, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated wrote an article on the dangers of pitchers under 25 throwing over 30 innings than they did the previous season (or their previous career high). This includes time spent in the minors and the postseason. Verducci stated that a lot of the times when pitchers break this rule they either get hurt the next season or have a big drop off in production. He listed seven pitchers who broke the rule and could be in trouble for the 2008, and the season didn't prove too successfull for much of them.


Ian Kennedy-sucked balls
Fausto Carmona-missed time with a hip injury, couldn't get anyone out when he actually did pitch.
Tom Gorzellanny-went from having a decent season to having an ERA over six.
Dustin McGowan-had surgery for a torn labrum
Chad Gaudin-didn't really have much of an increase in ERA, but at least he was terrible with the Cubs.
Yovani Gallardo-missed almost the whole season with a knee injury, nothing really to do with his 2007 workload.
Ubaldo Jimenez-had a decent season in his first full year (12-12, 3.99 ERA).

Some pitchers who broke the rule in 2008 and who could be in trouble this season include John Danks, Matt Garza, Cole Hamels, and Jair Jurrjens.

13 comments:

  1. i don't think any of those yanks had an increase of 30 or more innings from 2006 to 2007.

    *hughes from 146 to 103, went down.
    *joba from 89 college innings in '06, to 112 in '07. while he didn't break the 'verducci rule', i'm sure the jump from NCAA to pro-ball is significant, though.
    *kennedy from 104 innings in NCAA and low A ball, to 165 in 2007. ok. i'll give you this one. over 50 more innings and a much higher level. had no idea it was that bad until i looked.

    another name to add to you list of potential injuries this year due to excessive jump last year:
    John Lester
    2007: 154
    2008: 210
    2009: ??????

    as a yankee fan, i'm hoping he morphs into an '08 Ian Kennedy this season.

    ReplyDelete
  2. My bad, he mentioned Hughes and Chamberlain in the article but they weren't on the list. I fucked up on that one. All of the other guys were though.

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  3. Personally, I think you guys should stop printing nonsense about bullshit stats. If those guys get hurt its because of physiology not because of some stupid "Verducci Rule."

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  4. I heard more players get hurt if they live on the north side of the road. Also, fourth year players with more sisters than brothers have career years. I call it the "make-believe trends" rule.

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  5. Say what you guys want, but you saw the list. Most of the guys who broke the rule either sucked or got hurt the next year.

    ReplyDelete
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